Abstract.

Based on the analysis of the state of society with extremist elements, the aim of the study is to simulate social phenomena taking into account the emotions and psychological state of a person to determine the effectiveness of counter-terrorist actions of the state. A conceptual model of society with radical personalities, taking into account social, cognitive, emotional and psychological factors affecting the development of extremist manifestations, is developed. The model formalizing these factors and counterterrorist actions of the state is constructed. With the help of agent modeling in the Anylogic environment, this model is implemented and the results are obtained, allowing to determine the dynamics of extremist manifestations, is developed. The model formalizing these factors and counterterrorist actions of the state is constructed. With the help of agent modeling in the Anylogic environment, this model is implemented and the results are obtained, allowing to determine the dynamics of extreme manifestations in society, depending on the measures aimed at their prevention. The interface by means of which the analyst can change the parameters influencing the processes occurring in the model and study the reaction of the system to such changes is proposed.

Keywords:

agent-based modeling, terrorism, state of the agent, the generalized function of the state counter-terrorism action, stimulating action, the scale of the attack.

PP. 17-25.

DOI 10.14357/20718632190102

References

1. Shvedovskiy V.A. Modelirovanie cochialnophsihologicheskih posledstviy i veryatnosti soversheniya aktov extremisma i terrorisma // Matematicheskoye modelirovanie sochialnich processov. T. 7. – M.: MAKS Press, 2005. – S. 44-58.
2. Palitay I.S. Osobennosti primeneniya metoda modelirovaniya v sosialogicheskom issledovanii terrorizma. Dis. kand. sotz. nauk: 22.00.01 – M., - 04200961632.
3. James Pita, Manish Jain, Janusz Marecki, Fernando Ordóñez, Christopher Portway, Milind Tambe, Craig Western, Praveen Paruchuri, Sarit Kraus. Deployed ARMOR protection: The application of a game theoretic model for security at the Los Angeles International Airport. Conference: 7th International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2008), Estoril, Portugal, Industry and Applications Track Proceedings. – 2008.
4. Jonathan S. Feinstein, Edward H. Kaplan. Analysis of a Strategic Terror Organization // The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 54, No. 2, Terrorism and Policy (April 2010), pp. 281-302.
5. Ulrich Hendel. Look like the innocent flower, but be the serpent under’t: Mimicking behaviour of growth-oriented terrorist organizations. Munich Discussion. Paper No. 2012-20 Department of Economics University of Munich.
6. Boaz Golany, Edward H. Kaplan, Abraham Marmur, Uriel G. Rothblum. Nature plays with dice – terrorists do not: Allocating resources to counter strategic versus probabilistic risks // European Journal of Operational Research 192 (2009), pp. 198–208.
7. Daniel Jacobson, Edward H. Kaplan. Suicide Bombings and Targeted Killings in (Counter-) Terror Games // The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 51, No. 5 (Oct., 2007), pp. 772-792.
8. "Charta Caucasica". Spisok terroristov [Electronniy resurs]. – Rezim dostupa: internet: http://www.tkhostov.ru/download/files/terrorist_list.pdf
9. Fedorov Y.K. Sovremennii terrorism: osobennosti I perspektivi // Analiticheskie dokladi nauchnokoordinachionnogo soveta po mezdunarodnim i sskedovaniyam MGIMO (U) MID Rossii. Vipusk 1, iyun’ 2005 g. - Rezim dostupa: internet: http://imimgimo.ru/images/pdf/analiticheskie_doklady/ad-01.pdf
10. Drevs Yu.G. Zolotarev V.V. Vvedenie v imitachionnoe modelirovanie: Uchebnoe posobie. M.: MIFI, 2002.
11. Kulikova V.I., Mnachakanyan A.G. Ekonomika i upravlenie gosudarstvennimi rashodami v sisteme territorial’nih podrazdeleniy organov vnutrennih del (na primere UVD kaliningradskoi oblasti): Monografiya. – Kaliningrad, Baltiiskii institute ekonomiki I finansov, 2009. – 95 s., 2009.
12. Konsorchium Kodeks. Elektroonnii fond pravovoi i normativno-tehnicheskoi dokumentachii. [Elektronii resurs]. – Rezim dostupa: internet: http://docs.cntd.ru.